The next phase of global competition will not be won evenly. New research from McKinsey Global Institute suggests that economic value creation over the coming decades will be concentrated in a small number of fast-moving, capital-intensive ‘arenas’ where execution errors can compound quickly. Richard Stein, CEO of HSiQ – a Hunt Scanlon Company – examines what McKinsey’s findings reveal about leadership risk in these environments – and how specialist recruiters focused on key niche markets – like Artico Search – are poised for big growth.
McKinsey Global Institute’s latest research on the next “arenas of competition” sends a clear signal to investors and operators: future growth will be concentrated in fewer markets, and success in those markets will depend on speed, execution, and leadership quality.
According to McKinsey, sectors including AI software and services, cloud, cybersecurity, semiconductors, electric vehicles, robotics, advanced biotech, and future mobility could generate between $29 trillion and $48 trillion in annual revenues by 2040.
“These are not simply high-growth industries,” says Scott A. Scanlon, CEO of Hunt Scanlon and co-founder of talent intelligence advisor HSiQ. “They are environments defined by rapid innovation cycles, heavy capital investment, regulatory scrutiny, and compressed timelines. In these settings, leadership mistakes surface quickly – and correcting them late is often costly.”
Across these arenas, competition is increasingly shaped not just by strategy, he notes, “but by how quickly companies can identify, attract, and scale senior leaders into roles that are still evolving.” That reality, he says, is pushing executive search upstream – from a reactive hiring function to a strategic lever that directly influences outcomes.
“Niche executive search boutiques, in particular, are enjoying a bit of a gold rush at the moment.”
“That is good news for the highest end of the human capital solutions business,” he says, “where we are seeing increasing investor confidence. Niche executive search boutiques, in particular, are enjoying a bit of a gold rush at the moment.”
Leadership as a Growth System, Not a Hiring Event
“The next decade will reward companies and PE firms that understand leadership as a growth system, not a hiring event,” notes Richard Stein, CEO of HSiQ. “In these arenas, talent decisions and value creation are inseparable.”
The leadership challenges McKinsey outlines are already visible in how executive roles are evolving on the ground. One executive recruiting boutique, Artico Search, falls squarely within McKinsey’s future arenas.
Founded in 2021 just before the AI juggernaut took off, Artico focuses on what its leadership team calls a “grow and protect” model, recruiting senior go-to-market functional leaders as well as AI and security executives across venture capital, private markets, growth equity and public company environments.
Additionally, Artico has a robust private markets/investor practice, which is rare among search firms. Recruiting from the top down establishes Artico as a truly strategic business partner.
“Their work sits at the intersection of innovation and risk,” says Mr. Scanlon, “precisely the conditions McKinsey identifies as defining the next arenas of competition.”
Artico’s latest CISO benchmarking report highlights how AI and cybersecurity leadership roles are already expanding in scope and importance. Security leaders are increasingly holding executive level titles – reporting directly to CEOs, general counsel, or top institutionalized business leaders – and carrying enterprise-wide accountability for digital and operational risk. At the same time, many are operating in structures that have not fully adapted to the scale and expectations of the role.
“The next decade will reward companies and PE firms that understand leadership as a growth system, not a hiring event.”
This mirrors McKinsey’s broader thesis: as markets become faster and more complex, leadership roles will expand beyond narrow functional execution into enterprise stewardship.
“Our clients aren’t looking for incremental leadership,” says Matt Comyns, co-founder and president of Artico Search. “They’re building businesses in markets that are still forming. That demands leaders who can design, operate, and adapt at the same time.”
Leadership Moves Upstream of Strategy
In these environments, traditional pattern matching breaks down. Titles become fluid, reporting lines shift, and leaders are expected to operate across technical, regulatory, and commercial dimensions simultaneously, says Mr. Stein.
Artico’s research shows that even as executive level security titles become more common, many leaders remain constrained by legacy structures that haven’t caught up to the role’s true scope.
“That misalignment creates risk,” says Mr. Stein. “McKinsey’s future arenas reward organizations that align authority, scope, and accountability early – before complexity overwhelms execution.”
“Leadership will increasingly determine whether companies can keep up with the speed, complexity, and risk embedded in where value is forming.”
“What differentiates high growth companies and PE firms that succeed in these arenas is often not access to talent, but in knowing when leadership models must change and having the credibility to act decisively,” notes Mr. Stein. “That’s where really good executive search partnerships come into play.”
“In these arenas, timing and trust matter as much as capability,” says Mercedes Chatfield-Taylor, co-founder & CEO of Artico. “Our role is to bring both.”
McKinsey’s research makes the broader point unmistakable. The next phase of competition will be defined by fewer markets, higher pressure, and less margin for error. Executive search firms and advisors that remain generalist or transactional will struggle to keep pace with the leadership demands these arenas impose.
“As investors and operators lean into McKinsey’s future arenas, leadership will not be a downstream consideration to be solved later,” says Mr. Scanlon. “It will increasingly determine whether companies can keep up with the speed, complexity, and risk embedded in where value is forming. In these markets, leadership is not simply a support function. It is the strategy.”
HSiQ Insights Lab was created to examine exactly this intersection – where data, technology, and human potential converge. As the workforce contracts, advantage will not come from doing more with less. It will come from seeing more of what already exists – and using it intelligently.
For more information on how HSiQ can help your business succeed, please contact us today.
Article By
Richard Stein
Richard Stein is CEO of HSIQ. He has a distinguished career supporting the C-suite of many of the world’s top corporations and financial services organizations in all aspects of talent acquisition, development and retention. Richard is one of the industry’s top advisors with experience across the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific.
